The last time Washington won a game at Lambeau Field, shoulder pads were bigger, playbooks were smaller, and January football looked very different. That was 1986. Nearly four decades later, the Commanders arrive in Green Bay with a 1-0 record, a rocket-fueled rookie quarterback, and a shot to crack a building that has humbled plenty of contenders. The Packers are 1-0, too, and looked the part in their opener. Under the lights on a short week, the margins get thin fast.
This isn’t just another early-season stop. Both sides believe they’re in the NFC mix. Washington rode last season’s surge to the conference title game. Green Bay spent the offseason adding punch and speed, then handled business out of the gate. Stack on the Thursday stage, a tight point spread, and a playoff-caliber atmosphere, and you’ve got a barometer night for where each roster really stands.
Five things to watch
Start with the headliners. Jordan Love is calm and ruthless in Matt LaFleur’s system, working play-action, motion, and layered throws with better control than he showed a year ago. Jayden Daniels is as slippery as advertised — the kind of quarterback who turns a dead play into a first down and forces a defense to play 11-on-11 every snap. Both avoided turnovers in Week 1. Love finished drives. Daniels drove the bus, leading Washington in passing and chipping in real yards on the ground.
Packers vs Commanders comes down to how each defense handles the opposing QB’s superpower. For Green Bay, that means closing rush lanes without losing heat on Daniels. New defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley likes to be aggressive and live in single-high shells, but that approach can crack if edges rush past the quarterback. Expect a spy at times and a safety — think Xavier McKinney — driving downhill to cut off scrambles. For Washington, it’s about muddying Love’s picture before the snap and choking off the middle of the field where LaFleur’s crossers live. Dan Quinn’s defenses love simulated pressure and late movement. If they can get Love to hitch once, the rush can get home.
Lambeau discipline on a short week. The crowd gets loud fast on Thursdays. Silent counts can wobble, and so can timing on motions and shifts. That matters most for a rookie quarterback and a new-look operation. An early false start in the red zone or a blown protection on third-and-medium is often the hidden swing that flips a drive — or a quarter.
Trenches, both ways. Green Bay’s front four can ruin your night without blitzing. Rashan Gary and Preston Smith off the edges, Kenny Clark and Devonte Wyatt collapsing the pocket inside — that’s a lot of power to sort out with only four days to prep. Washington counters with a strong interior of its own in Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne, plus speed added under Quinn. If the Commanders win with four, they can keep seven in coverage and squeeze Love’s windows. If they need to bring five or six, the Packers will spam quick game and play-action throws to the flats.
The ground game’s hidden value. Josh Jacobs gives Green Bay a downhill answer that pairs well with LaFleur’s wide-zone looks. If Jacobs is churning out four and five on early downs, the Packers will live in second-and-manageable and keep their playbook wide open. Washington’s combo of Brian Robinson Jr. and Austin Ekeler gives them both hammer and scalpel. Robinson can set a tone; Ekeler stresses linebackers on option routes and screens. Mix in Daniels on designed keepers and you get the kind of run-game variety that can wear out a defense that chases all night.
Perimeter fireworks. The Packers’ young receiver room is deep, not just fast. Romeo Doubs wins in the air. Jayden Reed is a tackle-breaker in space. Christian Watson can stack corners if healthy and active. Tight end Luke Musgrave stretches seams and forces safeties to think twice. For Washington, Terry McLaurin is the cleaner, Jahan Dotson is the separator, and Daniels will take the one-on-ones when he sees them. The chess piece here is Jaire Alexander. If he travels with McLaurin, the Commanders need Dotson and the slot to cook against Green Bay’s nickel packages, likely featuring Keisean Nixon.
All that folds into the hidden yards: tackling after the catch. Both offenses design space touches. Whichever secondary rallies and tackles on first contact will steal a possession.
What it means, the swing factors, and a score pick
Short weeks punish thin depth charts. That shows up on special teams and in defensive rotations more than anywhere else. If either team is down a starting lineman or a key DB, expect a tighter snap count for the backups and a simple plan: fewer calls, faster play. That can help a mobile quarterback who thrives in chaos. It can also help a veteran play-caller who hunts matchups with formations and motion.
Watch third down and the red zone. Green Bay under LaFleur scripts early and adjusts fast after halftime. They’ll chase favorable down-and-distance by leaning on quick outs and option routes to Reed and Musgrave. Washington under Kliff Kingsbury is comfortable in empty and will use tempo to block your substitutions. In the low red zone, expect Daniels on QB power/read and quick, high-percentage throws to McLaurin on slants and fades. For the Packers, Love’s trust throws to Doubs and the leak-out to the tight end are the staples.
There’s a turnover subplot. Love protected the ball in Week 1 and has been better separating “aggressive” from “reckless.” Daniels didn’t blink in his debut and rarely put the ball in danger, but Lambeau at night can change sight lines. A tipped pass, a punch-out on a scramble, a muff in the return game — one of those likely decides a one-score game.
The weather shouldn’t be brutal in Week 2, but night games in Green Bay tend to be slick. That’s relevant for kickers and for defensive backs who have to stop and start against double moves. Field position could loom larger than usual. Keisean Nixon is always a threat to flip a field, and Washington’s coverage units will have to be clean. The kicking game matters if this compresses late.
Two more chess matches to keep in mind. First, the spy game on Daniels. If Green Bay uses a linebacker as a dedicated spy, that’s one fewer body in coverage, and Kingsbury will flood that vacancy with crossers and sit routes. If they rely on a safety as the cap, Daniels will test the edges with speed option and boot. Second, Green Bay’s play-action sequencing. LaFleur loves to stack looks — inside zone early, glance RPO off the same action, then a deep shot off max protect when the safeties bite. Washington’s safeties have to survive those “gotcha” downs without giving up a 40-yarder.
Personnel notes worth monitoring even without an official status sheet in hand: Green Bay’s interior offensive line health always matters against Allen and Payne. If the Packers have to ride a backup at guard, the screen game to Jacobs and Reed becomes both protection and attack. For Washington, tackle play is the swing. Daniels looks different when his first step is forward, not sideways. If the edges hold up, the Commanders can call more five-man protections and stress Green Bay with route quantity instead of max protect.
So where does that leave the number? Oddsmakers have Green Bay by a field goal with a total sitting around 49. The path for the Packers is clear: win first down with Jacobs, stay on schedule, let the pass rush squeeze the pocket without losing contain, and trust Love to finish drives. The path for Washington is just as obvious: explosive plays with Daniels’ legs and quick-hitters to McLaurin and Ekeler, keep the penalty sheet clean, and steal a possession on special teams or with a strip-sack.
The Lambeau streak isn’t decisive by itself, but it isn’t nothing. Crowd noise plus a veteran play-caller tends to travel better for the home team, especially on a short week. Green Bay has the edge in continuity and red-zone answers. Washington’s ceiling is high enough to flip this if Daniels turns two broken plays into touchdowns, yet the safer bet is the steadier operation.
Prediction: Packers 27, Commanders 21. Green Bay covers the three in a game that stays tense through the fourth quarter. Washington absolutely has the profile to spring an upset, but the Packers’ pass rush, situational offense, and home rhythm nudge this one their way.